Сергей Алексашенко, Сколько стоит #крымнаш?

By info@echo.msk.ru (Эхо Москвы)

Ответ Сергея Алексашенко

История не знает сослагательного наклонения.
Поэтому точного ответа на этот вопрос получить невозможно. Поэтому все, что я скажу ниже, можно оспорить, обвиняя меня как в занижении, так и в завышении полученных оценок. Сразу признаюсь, я и сам пока не готов подвести черту под своим анализом – мне кажется, значительная часть эффекта влияния политического фактора, связанного с Крымом, востоком Украины, санкциями и общим охлаждением отношений со странами Запада, на экономику нашей страны еще не проявилась. Экономика слишком неповоротливый корабль, который медленно меняет курс под воздействием единичного, даже очень сильного импульса; зато под воздействием множества более слабых, но последовательных импульсов может набрать огромную инерцию движения совсем не в ту сторону, в которую хотелось бы двигаться капитану, экипажу и пассажирам судна под названием Россия. Поэтому, отвечая на вопрос, я постараюсь обозначить именно те основные импульсы, которые сегодня стали очевидны, и которые, похоже, не исчезнут в ближайшие месяцы, т.е. которые будут продолжать изменять курс нашего титаника.

Начну с интегрированной оценки.
За последние полгода (с начала крымской операции) практически все эксперты и аналитики понизили прогнозы экономического роста для нашей страны. Среднее снижение составило около 1%. Многие эксперты (включая меня) считают, что в этом году введенные экономические санкции вряд ли окажут статистически видимый прямой эффект, поэтому 1%-ное снижение ВВП можно целиком отнести на эффект Крыма и Украины.

Российский ВВП в этом году составит около 72 трлн. рублей, примерно половину в структуре ВВП занимает заработная плата.
То есть недополученная всем нашим населением заработная плата составляет примерно 360 млрд. рублей. Делим на 72 млн. работающих и на 12 месяцев, вычитаем отчисления на соцстрах – получается 405 рублей на человека в месяц. Немного? Да, пожалуй. Но, давайте, посмотрим, что будет с экономическим ростом дальше. На мой взгляд, итоговые показатели этого года окажутся заметно ниже, чем те 1,5% роста, но которые сегодня еще рассчитывает правительство.

Следующий на сегодня, очевидно, самый значимый эффект политических событий это инфляция, которая раскручивается на наших глазах.
У нее два источника. Во-первых, это прямой эффект от введения Россией ограничений на импорт продовольствия из западных стран, который до конца года даст примерно 1% дополнительного роста цен. Во-вторых, это девальвация рубля.

Решение Банка России ослабить свой контроль за ежедневной динамикой курса рубля на внутреннем рынке, будучи стратегически правильным, тактически сыграло злую шутку.
Внутренние цены в России достаточно быстро и легко принимают ослабление рубля (по оценкам Центра развития, примерно, в соотношении 1:10, т.е. 10%-ная девальвация рубля дает 1%-ный прирост цен на горизонте 12 месяцев), но зато укрепление рубля (т.е. удешевление доллара, практически, не сказывается на ценовой динамике. А в российской жизни сезонность бывает не только в погоде, но и в экономических показателях. Так, например, в январе инфляция традиционно выше, чем в другие месяцы, зато в августе и сентябре – ниже. И на валютном рынке присутствует своя сезонность. В апреле-мае предложение валюты превышает спрос на нее, и курс рубля обычно укрепляется (или Центробанк наращивает свои резервы). Зато в январе и сентябре – ситуация обратная.

В результате, получилось, случившаяся в январе-феврале девальвация рубля не сошла весной на нет (как этого можно было ожидать), а, напротив, в силу что крымских событий получила дополнительное ускорение.
И это немедленно отразилось на динамике цен. По моей оценке, к сегодняшнему дню прирост инфляции в результате весенней девальвации составляет примерно 1 процент. А с учетом того, что с начала июля рубль снова совершил резкий, 15%-ный, прыжок вниз (и пока не похоже, что падение рубля на этом остановится; правда, здесь уже серьезным фактором, определяющим его динамику стал арест В.Евтушенкова и заявление прокуратуры о намерении вернуть “Башнефть» государству), то можно ожидать, что до конца года это даст еще, как минимум, 1%-ный прирост цен.

Опять-таки, подумаешь, скажут некоторые, 3% инфляции за Крым? Париж стоит мессы!
Но инфляция для населения это есть дополнительный налог, который обесценивает зарплаты и сбережения. Сегодня банки платят по вкладам населения, в среднем, процентов 7,5-8 годовых (устанавливали свои ставки они еще год назад, когда прогноз по инфляции на этот год составлял 5,5-6%, и тогда эти ставки выглядели прилично) – получается, что еще до того, как мы получили эти проценты, более трети их съедает инфляция. В абсолютном выражении (при 16,9 трлн. рублей частных депозитов) это составляет более 500 млрд. рублей – такую сумму потеряли вкладчики российских банков в этом году.

А при общем объеме годовой заработной платы в России около 36 трлн. рублей дополнительная 3%-ная инфляция означает, что граждане России потеряли примерно 1100 млрд. рублей в течение года.
Подводя промежуточные итоги, можно оценить совокупные прямые потери российского населения, вызванные политической авантюрой властей, примерно в 1850 миллиардов рублей, т.е. более 5% от годовой оплаты труда. Три четверти этой суммы приходится на эффект инфляции, от которой в гораздо большей степени страдают люди с низкими доходами – готов поспорить, что социологические опросы весьма скоро покажут сильный рост обеспокоенности населения ростом цен.

Расходы федерального бюджета на Крым размазаны по многим статьям.
То, что удалось найти мне, составляет примерно 140 млрд. рублей в 2015 году и 175-180 млрд. рублей в 2016-2017 гг. Чтобы было с чем сравнивать, скажу, что на программу развития здравоохранения из федерального бюджета в будущем году планируется выделить 260 млрд. рублей, на образование – 440 млрд. рублей, на развитие культуры и туризма – 101 млрд. рублей, на развитие всех регионов России (кроме отдельных программ по дальнему Востоку и Сибири, Северному Кавказу и Калининграду) – 660 млрд. рублей. Понятно, что деньги на Крым отобраны у других регионов, и масштаб этой “контрибуции» тоже понятен – 17,5% от тех денег, которые федеральный бюджет хотел потратить на региональное развитие.

Прямые расходы на поддержку военных действий ополченцев на этом фоне не будут большими, и можно смело предположить, что их по своим сусекам наскребло Минобороны, т.е. поступило честно, ни у кого не отобрав денег.

Пока невозможно оценить объем расходов, которые российские власти готовы направить на финансирование расходов “независимых» Донецка и Луганска, но готов предположить, что Минфином уже где-то в бюджете заложен резерв на эти цели.

Вот такой у меня получилась “бухгалтерская» оценка того, что Россия, главным образом, российское население уже заплатило за политическую авантюру властей.
Пять процентов годовой зарплаты – на мой взгляд, это очень и очень много, но это никак не означает, что, даже если граждане нашей страны реально обеспокоятся ростом цен, рейтинг Путина пошатнется, или что россияне с низкими доходами выйдут на улицы на протестные демонстрации.

Так как ответ получился достаточно длинный, то я отложу разговор о финансовых и технологических санкциях на потом – когда фактов будет побольше.
Точно так же, как и разговор об отношениях с Китаем, который сам по себе обширен и весьма интересен. Надеюсь, подходящий для этого вопрос рано или поздно привлечет внимание большинства.

Задать новый вопрос Сергею Алексашенко >>>

Via:: Echo Moscow

‘Take back our tanks’: Police can’t get rid of military gear in Ferguson aftermath

By RT

The DoD’s Excess Property Program ‒ also known as the 1033 Program ‒ furnishes police departments around the country with excess weapons, vehicles, and office supplies at no cost to the jurisdiction. But what has been criticized as the increasing militarization of police became a hot topic over the summer after riots broke out in Ferguson, Missouri and law enforcement responded with what many saw as excessive force and unnecessary weaponry.

The 1033 Program has become the subject of numerous reports and studies, as well as congressional inquiries. Several cities, including Davis, California, have told their police departments to get rid of military inventory, including mine-resistant ambush protected (MRAP) vehicles.

However, some jurisdictions have found that getting rid of their military surplus is easier said than done.

An officer with the Chelan County Sheriff’s Department in central Washington says he would love for someone to take three amphibious tanks off his hands.

“We really want to get rid of these,” Undersheriff John Wisemore told Mother Jones. “We’ve been trying to get the military to take them back since 2004.”

The program began in 1991, when the War on Drugs was at its height. Excess military supplies were transferred to local law enforcement agencies, with preference given to those that would use the equipment for counterdrug and counterterrorism activities, the Washington Post reported.

Over the past eight years, the Pentagon grant program has loaned local law enforcement some 200,000 ammunition magazines, 94,000 machine guns, and thousands of armored vehicles, aircraft, land mine detectors, silencers, and grenade launchers ‒ all at the request of the local agencies themselves, Mother Jones reported, citing a spokeswoman for Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), who has spearheaded a Senate investigation into the program.

Even before 1033 came under increased media scrutiny over the summer, some forces were realizing they didn’t need – or want – the weapons of war they had acquired from the Pentagon. In Chelan County’s case, they had asked for an armored vehicle that would withstand bullets, and received the three tanks instead.

Agencies like Wisemore’s are finding they can’t return or trade large pieces of tactical equipment without Defense Department approval – and since the Pentagon technically still owns that equipment, they can’t sell it, according to Mother Jones.

Meanwhile, nearly 200 state and local police departments in the United States have been suspended for losing equipment loaned to them under the 1033 program.

Derek Citty, superintendent of the Aledo Independent School District in Texas, was able to return rifles school police received from the program.

“When we received those weapons ‒ particularly the M16s ‒ our district, wisely I believe, made a decision that they did not fit into the philosophical scheme of what we were trying to do to protect our kids and our staff,” Citty told Here & Now’s Robin Young

Most of the time, the DoD doesn’t want the equipment back.

“It’s a low-cost storage method for them,” Robb Davis, the mayor pro tem of Davis, Calif., told Mother Jones. “They’re dumping these vehicles on us and saying, ‘Hey, these are still ours, but you have to maintain them for us’.”

But the program does more than fill police departments’ arsenals, according to Kathryn Blake, secretary for the Iowa fire marshal’s office.

“Everybody only sees the weapons,” Blake told KCRG. “What they’re not seeing is, in the state of Iowa, we have a couple of boats for water emergencies. We have ATVs, office equipment. They’ve received computers, filing cabinets, you name it.”

Police forces wishing to return their equipment must go through their state offices, like Blake’s in Iowa, and cannot directly contact the Pentagon. However, the state offices can’t help because the Defense Department had closed the portion of its website that allows police departments to request returns until October 1. Blake says she is overwhelmed by the responsibility, which is only part of her job description.

“For an additional duty, this has caused me a lot of gray hair,” she said. “Last year this time, I’m just trying to keep my program moving. All of the sudden, I’m defending this program.”

Ursula Kroener – a police spokeswoman for the San Diego school district police department who is trying to return an 18-ton MRAP – was told that the Pentagon halted returns partly because so many law enforcement agencies are clamoring to return their equipment, Mother Jones reported.

Via:: RT.com

‘Take back our tanks’: Police can’t get rid of military gear in Ferguson aftermath

By RT

The DoD’s Excess Property Program ‒ also known as the 1033 Program ‒ furnishes police departments around the country with excess weapons, vehicles, and office supplies at no cost to the jurisdiction. But what has been criticized as the increasing militarization of police became a hot topic over the summer after riots broke out in Ferguson, Missouri and law enforcement responded with what many saw as excessive force and unnecessary weaponry.

The 1033 Program has become the subject of numerous reports and studies, as well as congressional inquiries. Several cities, including Davis, California, have told their police departments to get rid of military inventory, including mine-resistant ambush protected (MRAP) vehicles.

However, some jurisdictions have found that getting rid of their military surplus is easier said than done.

An officer with the Chelan County Sheriff’s Department in central Washington says he would love for someone to take three amphibious tanks off his hands.

“We really want to get rid of these,” Undersheriff John Wisemore told Mother Jones. “We’ve been trying to get the military to take them back since 2004.”

The program began in 1991, when the War on Drugs was at its height. Excess military supplies were transferred to local law enforcement agencies, with preference given to those that would use the equipment for counterdrug and counterterrorism activities, the Washington Post reported.

Over the past eight years, the Pentagon grant program has loaned local law enforcement some 200,000 ammunition magazines, 94,000 machine guns, and thousands of armored vehicles, aircraft, land mine detectors, silencers, and grenade launchers ‒ all at the request of the local agencies themselves, Mother Jones reported, citing a spokeswoman for Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), who has spearheaded a Senate investigation into the program.

Even before 1033 came under increased media scrutiny over the summer, some forces were realizing they didn’t need – or want – the weapons of war they had acquired from the Pentagon. In Chelan County’s case, they had asked for an armored vehicle that would withstand bullets, and received the three tanks instead.

Agencies like Wisemore’s are finding they can’t return or trade large pieces of tactical equipment without Defense Department approval – and since the Pentagon technically still owns that equipment, they can’t sell it, according to Mother Jones.

Meanwhile, nearly 200 state and local police departments in the United States have been suspended for losing equipment loaned to them under the 1033 program.

Derek Citty, superintendent of the Aledo Independent School District in Texas, was able to return rifles school police received from the program.

“When we received those weapons ‒ particularly the M16s ‒ our district, wisely I believe, made a decision that they did not fit into the philosophical scheme of what we were trying to do to protect our kids and our staff,” Citty told Here & Now’s Robin Young

Most of the time, the DoD doesn’t want the equipment back.

“It’s a low-cost storage method for them,” Robb Davis, the mayor pro tem of Davis, Calif., told Mother Jones. “They’re dumping these vehicles on us and saying, ‘Hey, these are still ours, but you have to maintain them for us’.”

But the program does more than fill police departments’ arsenals, according to Kathryn Blake, secretary for the Iowa fire marshal’s office.

“Everybody only sees the weapons,” Blake told KCRG. “What they’re not seeing is, in the state of Iowa, we have a couple of boats for water emergencies. We have ATVs, office equipment. They’ve received computers, filing cabinets, you name it.”

Police forces wishing to return their equipment must go through their state offices, like Blake’s in Iowa, and cannot directly contact the Pentagon. However, the state offices can’t help because the Defense Department had closed the portion of its website that allows police departments to request returns until October 1. Blake says she is overwhelmed by the responsibility, which is only part of her job description.

“For an additional duty, this has caused me a lot of gray hair,” she said. “Last year this time, I’m just trying to keep my program moving. All of the sudden, I’m defending this program.”

Ursula Kroener – a police spokeswoman for the San Diego school district police department who is trying to return an 18-ton MRAP – was told that the Pentagon halted returns partly because so many law enforcement agencies are clamoring to return their equipment, Mother Jones reported.

Via:: RT.com

#Bendgate fallout: Company aims to profit from pre-bent iPhone 6 Plus cases

By RT

READ MORE: If #bendgate wasn’t enough: Apple withdraws iOS8 update after multiple fails reported

Shapeways, a 3D printing firm, has released a pre-bent iPhone 6 Plus case for the cost of $19.99. The company has also published 3D blueprints of the case for those who wish to print it on their own.

You’ll be bending your phone to get one of these. #Bendgate#Bendghazihttp://t.co/B8M8P8BTXWpic.twitter.com/o45EwR3PIu

— happyfication (@happyfication) September 30, 2014

The product is still in the development stage and its success will depend on how many pre-orders Shapeways receives.

The #Bendgate social media hype began with some iPhone 6 Plus users reporting that their new devices bend when carried in pants pockets.

An avalanche of jokes followed, poking fun at Apple’s unexpected new screen feature. Companies like Samsung, LG, Nokia, Pringles, and Heineken did not miss the opportunity to do their share of trolling.

Another #bendgate ad from Samsung. #BendAid. pic.twitter.com/xx06BmXrt0

— Stiven Agoubi (@StivenAgoubi) September 30, 2014

Nicht mal auf Biegen und Brechen. #unBENDable#bendgatehttp://t.co/XvwsR2iFdC

— Nokia Deutschland (@NokiaHomebase) September 25, 2014

Dear Apple… #BendGatepic.twitter.com/XJ8zVEUog9

— Heineken NL (@Heineken_NL) September 25, 2014

Countless numbers of users also trolled Apple on Twitter, posting images of their bent devices.

there i fixed it #bendgate@bendgatepic.twitter.com/tV1bwgNGWo

— drankpee (@drankpee) September 23, 2014

Shots fired #bendgatepic.twitter.com/dVleqaf5xg

— dory (@Kyriacz) September 26, 2014

iPhone 6 Plus Repair Kit #BendGate#BendGhazi#iPhone6bendhttp://t.co/GB64HM6dxupic.twitter.com/U9uqFFYdWX

— 9GAG (@9GAG) September 25, 2014

Popular European computer magazine Computer Bild posted a video showing one of its journalists bending an iPhone 6 Plus under pressure.

In a surprisingly harsh response, Apple has withdrawn the magazine’s PR accreditation, indicating that it will no longer be sending test units to the publication or inviting it to Apple events.

Meanwhile, two British kids opened themselves up to a criminal investigation after entering Apple stores and recording themselves trying to bend iPhones, The Daily Dot reported.

Following what Apple has branded a smear campaign, the tech firm issued a statement, saying that due diligence was carried out when testing the 30,000 new iPhone 6 units, including hundreds of “torture tests” that pinpoint the device’s weight and stress limits.

Meanwhile, Consumer Reports has tested just how bendable the new iPhone 6 Plus is, finding that it would take around 90 pounds (40.8 kg) of pressure for it to bend permanently.

The majority of similarly sized phones were also tested alongside the iPhone 6 Plus – and they were found to bend just the same under equal pressure, according to a video published by the magazine.

Via:: RT.com

#SecretServiceFail: Armed man ‘slipped past agents, rode in elevator with Obama’

By RT

READ MORE: Secret Service expecting big changes after intruder compromised White House receptions room

The incident – which reportedly took place just three days before a man with a knife in his pocket climbed over the White House fence and made it into the building – is the latest in a string of security breaches attributed to Secret Service blunders.

According to accounts first reported by the Washington Examiner, the incident took place on September 16, when President Obama visited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia, for a briefing on the Ebola crisis.

The unnamed man – identified as a private security contractor – was able to get onto the same elevator as Obama, where he then took photos and videos of the president. He was “behaving unprofessionally,” reports said.

Despite orders from Secret Service agents to stop what he was doing, the man did not listen. Agents then questioned the man, and discovered his multiple convictions during a database check. According to the Washington Post, the contractor was fired on the spot by his supervisor and was ordered to turn over his gun.

The detail that seems particularly surprising is that the Secret Service was apparently unaware of the man being in possession of a gun the entire time he was inches away from Obama. The only people permitted to be armed when the president travels are Secret Service agents and sworn law enforcement officials – privately employed contractors don’t make the cut.

“You have a convicted felon within arms reach of the president and they never did a background check,” said Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) to the Post. “Words aren’t strong enough for the outrage I feel for the safety of the President and his family.”

“His life was in danger. This country would be a different world today if he had pulled out his gun,” he said.

While the man was not described to the Examiner as a serious threat to Obama’s safety, the fact that he was able to slip past detection by the Secret Service – which is supposed to know exactly who will be in close proximity to the president – has raised alarm over the agency’s performance.

At the time of reporting, Obama himself seemed to be unaware of the incident, according to the Post.

News of the elevator blunder came on the same day that Secret Service director Julia Pierson testified before Congress, where she faced significant criticism from both Democrats and Republicans for recent security breaches at the White House. She acknowledged the episodes are “unacceptable” and promised they would never happen again.

On September 20, military veteran Omar Gonzalez, 42, made it into the White House through an unlocked door after jumping the fence. It was not the first such incident though; Pierson told lawmakers that 16 fence jumpers have been documented in the past five years.

“I recognize that these events did not occur in a vacuum. The Secret Service has had its share of challenges in recent years,” Pierson wrote in her opening testimony prepared for Congress, promising to “redouble” her efforts in bringing the agency’s performance up to standard.

Responding to reports of security breaches, White House press secretary Josh Earnest told reporters that he expects ongoing investigations to reveal more information.

“It is my view that it is in the interest of the agency in question – and all of you – for the information to be accurate and released as soon as possible,” he said. “There is legitimate public interest in this matter because it relates to the safety and security of the commander in chief.”

“While you heard some additional details from Director Pierson today, I’m confident that as investigators continue to do their work, there’s likely to be more information that they uncover, that they’re able to lock down,” Earnest said.

Via:: RT.com